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Jefferies: SCOTUS Could Hear Prediction Markets Case Between November and June

By juan365 casino news · September 4, 2026

Jefferies: SCOTUS Could Hear Prediction Markets Case Between November and June

Kailan maaaring dinggin ng U.S. Supreme Court ang prediction markets case? Ayon sa analyst ng Jefferies, posible itong mangyari sa pagitan ng Nobyembre at Hunyo, kasunod ng magkasalungat na desisyon ng Third at Ninth Circuit Courts. Ang desisyong ito ay magtatakda kung ang mga event contract ay swap o hindi, na makakaapekto sa buong industriya ng prediction markets.

Bakit Mahalaga ang Prediction Markets Case sa Supreme Court?

Matapos ang magkasalungat na desisyon ng Third at Ninth Circuit Courts of Appeals, lumalaki ang consensus sa investment at legal communities na dadalhin ng Supreme Court ang isa sa mga kasong ito. Sinabi ni Jefferies analyst David Katz sa isang ulat na ang “diverging rulings” ay “suggest a path to SCOTUS between November and April next year.”

Noong Abril, nagdesisyon ang Third Circuit na ang lahat ng event contracts ay classified bilang swaps, kaya nasa ilalim ito ng regulasyon ng Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Pero noong nakaraang buwan, nagdesisyon ang Ninth Circuit na ang sports event contracts ay hindi swap, kaya hindi sakop ng CFTC.

Kasunod nito, hinihimok ng New Jersey (isa sa mga state sa Third Circuit) ang Supreme Court na kunin ang kaso. “We’re calling on the Supreme Court to resolve this issue and recognize that Congress did not silently make the sports-betting industry immune from state law,” sabi ni New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport.

Ano ang Worst-Case Scenario para sa Prediction Markets?

Hindi inaasahan na babawalan ng Supreme Court ang prediction markets, pero may iba pang panganib. Ayon kay Katz, ang pinakamalaking risk ay hindi outright prohibition, kundi ang erosion of economics sa pamamagitan ng:

Comparison: Prediction Market Tax vs. Sports Betting Tax

EstadoPrediction Market Tax (2027)Online Sports Betting Tax
North Carolina6%23%

“North Carolina presents a complex example of the conflict potential with its intended 6% prediction market tax in 2027 vs. a 23% online sports betting tax,” paliwanag ni Katz.

Sa legal community, conventional wisdom ay na mas gusto ng prediction market operators ang federal regulation para maiwasan ang hodgepodge ng state-level regulatory at tax schemes na kinakaharap ng sportsbook operators.

Tulad ng ilan sa kanyang mga kasamahan, naniniwala si Katz na ang loss of legal ambiguity ay makakatulong sa ilang gaming stocks. “Ultimately, we view any legal clarity as positive for our coverage vs. current uncertainties,” sabi niya.

Bukod sa Supreme Court chatter, itinuturo ni Katz na ang vertical integration ay nagiging importanteng modelo sa prediction market industry dahil sa low fee yields. Ito ang ginagamit ng:

“We note that fee yields remain low, with exchange economics generally clustering around a fraction of a percent of traded volume,” sabi ni Katz. “We estimate DKeX (DKNG) has generated ~$5 million in taker fees on roughly $84 million of volume since inception in mid-June, which suggests heavy dependence on maintaining large-scale liquidity and event-based participation which is similar to online sports betting business models.”

Sa madaling salita: Kung dadalhin ng Supreme Court ang kaso, maaaring magkaroon ng malinaw na federal rules para sa prediction markets — pero maaaring may kasamang mataas na buwis at restrictions. Ang mga stock tulad ng DraftKings at Flutter ay posibleng makikinabang sa legal clarity na ito.

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